Predictive Analytics
Statistical models evaluate historical patterns and current market data to narrow down the probabilities of price developments. Results are presented as scenarios with confidence statements, not as a firm forecast.
Zinsen Ferlar evaluates market and portfolio data in real time and provides comprehensible recommendations for action. Designed for people who use capital markets as additional income alongside another activity.
Zinsen Ferlar takes over the data processing in the background and reduces the decision to a few, clearly justified options. The system does not replace your own judgment, but rather provides the basis for it.
Each component works against the same data set, so recommendations remain consistent even if market conditions change at short notice.
Statistical models evaluate historical patterns and current market data to narrow down the probabilities of price developments. Results are presented as scenarios with confidence statements, not as a firm forecast.
Positions and watch lists are continuously compared with new data. Deviations from defined threshold values are logged and displayed.
Position sizes and volatility indicators are incorporated into a risk assessment that is based on individually defined limit values. Warnings appear before defined limits are reached.
Analysis results are summarized in structured reports that can be exported for your own documentation or tax purposes.
The process is deliberately divided into three comprehensible steps so that users understand what a recommendation is based on.
Market, price and reporting data are brought together from multiple sources and checked for completeness and plausibility before being incorporated into the models.
Neural and statistical models evaluate patterns, correlations and risk factors in parallel. The weighting of the models is documented and can be viewed.
Results are translated into concrete, prioritized options, including risk assessment. The final decision remains with the user.
Every model recommendation executed via Zinsen Ferlar is logged with a timestamp. The following excerpt shows the format of the log using example entries.
| Date | Strategy class | Time horizon | Result | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2024 | Market neutral | 14 days | +2.1% | verified |
| March 18, 2024 | Momentum | 7 days | −0.6% | verified |
| 04/02/2024 | Diversified | 30 days | +3.4% | verified |
| April 21, 2024 | Hedging | 10 days | +0.8% | verified |
Example excerpt to illustrate the log format. The “verified” stamp confirms that the time and result were recorded independently of the original recommendation and were not subsequently changed. Past results do not allow any conclusions to be drawn about future developments.
Each recommendation contains a confidence statement and a risk rating. The system does not show guarantees, but rather justified probabilities. Users set their own risk limits, which are taken into account by the system.
Data can be imported using common export formats. Direct order execution via third-party providers is not part of the system; Decisions and execution remain separate.
Market and portfolio data provided by the user are processed. Personal information is stored separately from analysis data and is not passed on to third parties for advertising purposes.
The analysis logic is independent of the capital employed. Recommendations are issued relative to the portfolio size, which means that even smaller volumes can be evaluated in a structured manner.